01App · Doomsday Alert · Method
How Doomsday Alert calculates.
We do not predict crises. We show warning signs: signals that moved before past crises. Here you can see which ones, how they become a level and how well this would have worked in the past.
1. The signals
| Risk hotspot | Signals | Sources |
|---|---|---|
| War & nuclear | Embassies pulling out staff, travel warnings, airspace warnings, emptying airspace, military, tanker and government flights, WC-135 sampling aircraft, prediction markets | German Foreign Office, US State Department, EU Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), flight data from adsb.lol |
| Pandemics | Early reports on outbreaks, attention | WHO, Wikipedia |
| AI risk | Reported AI incidents, attention | AI Incident Database, Wikipedia |
| Nature & space | Solar storms, cyclones, asteroids | NOAA, GDACS, NASA |
| Unrest & coups | Government flights, attention, prediction markets | Flight data from adsb.lol, Wikipedia |
| Financial markets | VIX fear index, gold, Swiss franc | Financial market data |
2. From signals to a level
Each risk hotspot gets 0 to 100 risk points. Together they form the index from 0 to 100. From 20 points it is level 2, from 40 level 3, from 60 level 4 and from 80 level 5. The level only goes down after two lower readings in a row, so it does not jump back and forth. New values come several times a day.
3. Backtest
We applied our rules to past crises. This shows how early Doomsday Alert would have warned. A backtest is no proof for the future.
Result: 8 of 11 crises had an early signal. 3 came without warning.
| Crisis | Date | First signal | Lead time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Covid pandemic | 16/03/2020 | 05/01/2020: WHO reports pneumonia of unknown cause in China | 71 days |
| Iran War | 28/02/2026 | 12/01/2026: US tells its citizens to leave Iran | 47 days |
| Invasion of Ukraine | 24/02/2022 | 23/01/2022: US orders embassy families out of Kyiv | 32 days |
| Israel-Iran war (Twelve-Day War) | 13/06/2025 | 11/06/2025: US orders embassy staff out of Baghdad | 2 days |
| Iran attacks Israel | 14/04/2024 | 12/04/2024: German Foreign Office issues a travel warning for Iran | 2 days |
| Soleimani | 03/01/2020 | 01/01/2020: US embassy in Baghdad halts consular services | 2 days |
| Strongest solar storm since 2003 | 10/05/2024 | 09/05/2024: NOAA issues a severe geomagnetic storm watch | 1 day |
| Oreshnik strike and nuclear doctrine | 21/11/2024 | 20/11/2024: US embassy in Kyiv closes, expecting a major air attack | 1 day |
| Ebola emergency | 17/05/2026 | The WHO reported Ebola from two countries. That is below our threshold of three countries for an early signal. | none |
| Terror attack on Israel | 07/10/2023 | The attack came without official warning signs. Embassies only reacted afterwards. | none |
| Wagner mutiny | 24/06/2023 | Attention only rose on the day of the mutiny. Several government Il-96 also only flew that day. | none |
Not predictable
These events give no public warning. That is why we do not count them.
- WannaCry (2017): Cyberattacks come without public warning signs. That is why there is no risk hotspot for them in the index.
- Earthquake in Turkey (2023): Earthquakes give no warning. That is why earthquakes are not part of the index.
- Missile in Poland (2022): A stray air-defence missile. Something like this gives no warning.
- Hawaii missile false alarm (2018): A false alarm. There was no real threat, so nothing to predict.
- September 11 (2001): Terror attacks are planned in secret. No public source would have shown them.
4. Limits
- No prediction: a signal does not mean that something will certainly happen.
- Some crises come without public warning signs, such as terror attacks or earthquakes.
- Sources can fail. The app shows this.
- Not an official warning. In an emergency, official warnings apply (in Germany NINA and Cell Broadcast, in Austria AT-Alert, in Switzerland Alertswiss), along with the instructions of the authorities.